College Football Week 14 update
I was wrong!
In my Heisman odds update last week, I wrote, “LSU’s Jayden Daniels will always be in the mix because of how absurdly efficient he is, but I’m unsure if there’s a path for him to win the award.”
After racking up over 500 total yards and eight total touchdowns against Georgia State on Saturday, Daniels is now the betting favorite to win the Heisman, ahead of Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr.
Here are the full and current Heisman odds, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook:
|Heisman Trophy odds||Week 13|
|LSU QB Jayden Daniels||-110|
|Oregon QB Bo Nix||+125|
|Washington QB Michael Penix Jr.||+650|
|Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr.||+6000|
|Georgia QB Carson Beck||+8000|
|Alabama QB Jalen Milroe||+15000|
|Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy||+25000|
|Ohio State QB Kyle McCord||+25000|
|Michigan RB Blake Corum||+25000|
|LSU WR Malik Nabers||+25000|
|Oklahoma State RB Ollie Gordon II||+25000|
LSU’s abysmal defense held the Tigers back this year, but Daniels proved himself as the most efficient, absurd quarterback in the FBS.
He’s tallied up over 3,500 passing yards (third-most nationally) at 11.6 yards per attempt with a 36:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
He’s added over 1,110 rushing yards at 10.3 yards per carry with 10 touchdowns to only three fumbles. He forced 40 missed tackles and managed almost 500 yards after contact.
He’s the 11th quarterback in FBS history to throw for 3,000 yards and rush for 1,000 in the same season.
Daniels ranks second in total Passing Expected Points Added (EPA), trailing Oregon’s Bo Nix by three points.
However, he’s added an FBS-quarterback-high 32.3 total Rushing EPA, which is six points more than any other quarterback (Garrett Greene is second with 26.8), 30 points more than Nix (1.3) and 43 points more than Penix (-12.8).
Between his dangerous passing and rushing ability, Daniels has added too much value to avoid being in the Heisman conversation.
Not only is he completing an efficient 71% of his passes, but he’s been a big-play machine.
The point is that Daniels has been too good to ignore despite the Tigers underwhelming preseason expectations.
That said, the award is far from decided.
Penix’s Heisman odds surprisingly lengthened after a gutty road win over Oregon State, but he was underwhelming in that game, completing only 13 of 28 pass attempts for a season-low 162 yards.
Penix has been underwhelming in the second half of the season.
He averaged just over 400 passing yards per game through the season’s first five weeks, but he’s averaging 282 pass yards per game in the six contests since.
Penix hasn’t looked like a dominant quarterback, dropping his Heisman and draft stocks.
However, Penix could still affect the Heisman voting if he downs Nix’s Ducks in the Pac-12 championship game.
Conversely, Nix could overtake Daniels if he beats the Huskies there – the books expect this, as the Ducks are a 7.5-point favorite in a hypothetical Oregon-Washignton Pac-12 Championship line set at FanDuel.
I’m not sure if Nix is getting enough love.
Since losing to Washington in Week 6, Nix has posted 22 total touchdowns to one interception while completing almost 80% of his passes.
He drowned Arizona State last week, amassing over 400 passing yards with six passing touchdowns … all in the first half! He was pulled for the rest of the game in the blowout.
It’s a three-horse race, but I imagine Nix and Daniels are the better Heisman options, given Penix’s recent lackluster play.
While Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr. still has an outside shot at the award, I’d keep a closer eye on Georgia’s Carson Beck.
I don’t know what got into Beck, but no quarterback has improved more than him this year.
He has six 300-yard games over the past eight weeks, tallying an 18:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the stretch.
He’s snuck up to 10th among FBS quarterbacks in total EPA and third in Pro Football Focus’s passing grades, trailing only Nix and Daniels in the latter stat.
He’s been unbelievable against zone coverage this year, hitting Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey for big play after big play. He toasted Tennessee’s rock-solid defense last Saturday.
Betting on College Football?
If Georgia dominates Alabama in the SEC Championship game behind a massive game from Beck, I could see him receiving the third finalist nod ahead of Penix, granted Oregon beats Washington in the Pac-12 Championship game.
After all, in that scenario, Beck would be the leader of the only undefeated team in college football this year.
And, in that scenario, an 80-to-1 Beck Heisman ticket would hold some value.